This Time It’s Different...

Sir John Templeton is supposed to have said that the four most dangerous words in investing are:

“This time it’s different.”

And as the US launched strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026—for reasons that still feel, at best, unclear—it would be all too easy to surrender to those exact words.

At moments like this—when everything feels different in the most dangerous ways—it’s easy to focus only on what could go wrong.

A potential energy shock.
Rising costs worldwide and inflation.
A deteriorating economic outlook.

And from that, a simple conclusion follows:

this time really is different.

But the real danger to a portfolio is often not the crisis in front of you—

it’s the history you choose to ignore.

Because every crisis does feel different while you’re living through it.

During COVID in early 2020, markets were pricing in scenarios where large parts of the global population—and economy—could effectively shut down indefinitely.

In February 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brought the prospect of a prolonged European war back into focus.

In April 2025, escalating US–China trade tensions introduced a new wave of tariffs, supply chain disruption, and global uncertainty.

And now, once again, we are faced with a new geopolitical shock layered on top of an already fragile macro environment.

The trigger changes from one sell-off to the next.

But I recognise the same unease every time markets start falling.

And over the past decade alone, we’ve moved through multiple “once-in-a-generation” events—each one, at the time, framed as a fundamental break from the past.

If one sees the current situation as unique or entirely new—a break with history—there is a terrible temptation to hit the sell button.

But ask yourself:

Would anyone, with the benefit of hindsight, have sold the day before the recovery in all of these previous events?

Following these temporary declines, markets bounced strongly, and the long-term advance continued.

Applied to UK small caps and AIM— thin liquidity and domestic sentiment hanging by a thread, investors are even more reactive—declines become amplified.

Add in a 24/7 news cycle, social media, and the reality that markets can move sharply on something as simple as a tweet, and it’s no surprise that investors have become increasingly nervous.

Layer on top the rise of electronic trading apps on our phones— constant notifications, platforms designed to keep us active, because they make money when we trade—and the temptation to react in real time becomes even stronger.

And it’s in moments like this that investors can make their biggest mistakes.

At the time of writing, my portfolio is down around 25% from its peak, and it feels painful giving back gains.

But I haven’t actually lost anything—

I still own the same number of shares I had before the crisis.

That’s worth remembering.

Would you sell your house if it dropped in value by a quarter within a few weeks?

More broadly, I felt the US stock market was in pretty good shape before Trump’s so-called “excursion”.

Inflation was coming down.
AI had the potential to usher in a new golden age of technological advancement and increased profitability.
Interest rates were on the way down.

Initially, it seemed like the market was pricing in a quick resolution, and with work being particularly busy recently, I haven’t been able to give markets the attention I normally would. So I remain around 90% invested and have decided to ride this one out.

With AIM small caps in particular, transformational news flow—contracts, positive updates, or even a takeover bid—can happen at any time.

Selling out risks leaving me watching from the sidelines as a potential move could unfold.

Practical Takeaways — How to Stay Calm in Uncertain Times

1. Consider Your Time Horizon

How long are you actually investing for?

Personally, I don’t think you should be in equities at all if your time horizon is less than three years.

Short-term investing is, in many ways, an oxymoron.

It’s remarkable how quickly people’s time horizons shift—from ten years to ten minutes—when markets become volatile.

If you’re not finished buying yet, why would you want the market to do anything other than go down?

When prices fall, value increases—and so do expected future returns.

My goal is to build my ISA to £1M, and I’m still very much in the accumulation stage with a multi-decade time horizon.

I am nowhere near finished buying equities.

The ISA allowance resets on April 6th — a new tax year and another £20,000 for me to allocate.

I’ll be watching my watchlist stocks closely during this period, deciding which ones to allocate additional capital to.

Instead of panicking, revisit the companies on your watchlist and start compiling a “sale” shopping list.

You also need to make sure you have a sufficient emergency fund in cash.

I keep around three months’ expenses in Premium Bonds.

This provides me with a financial buffer and means I never have to withdraw money from my portfolio at a bad time.

2. Go Back and Revisit the Companies

Has the thesis actually changed?

Remember why you invested in the first place.

You’re far better off re-reading recent news flow and results statements than staring at a share price chart all day—torturing yourself and inviting emotional decisions.

If you understand what the company does—and still believe in it—I’ve found it becomes much easier to hold through periods of uncertainty.

3. Control Your Inputs

Ignore financial “pornography” like X in times like this—it will only amplify your emotions.

The algorithm rewards sensationalism and quickly turns into an echo chamber of panic.

Also, get on with your life.

Go out for a walk.

Enjoy the sunshine.
Live in the present.

Step away from the NEWS—“Negative Events Worldwide Service”—for a while.

4. Keep Perspective

Show gratitude. At the end of the day, it’s only money.

Appreciate how fortunate you are to have surplus income to invest in equities and build a better future for you and your family. So many people don’t in the current environment.

It’s easy to lose sight of the bigger picture in times like these—and forget the human cost of war, and that many people are living in far worse situations than you.

Final Thoughts

John Templeton also said:

“The best time to buy stocks is when others are anxiously selling.”

The reason to buy equities is never based on what the market is going to do next—which is unknowable anyway.

It’s based on what the market is ultimately going to do. Equities are ultimately going to go up more than most people are capable of imagining.

This time isn’t different — it just feels like it is.